Past Predictions
Portfolio Performance
Shares of companies involved in sectors with cyclical attributes, such as the resources sector, frequently display a high level of volatility creating opportunities for investors. Stock Resource was launched in June 2003 as an independent research service providing stock recommendations for investors seeking exposure to these cyclical companies.
Since inception Stock Resource has used a consistent methodology for measuring the performance of its share recommendations in a concise and transparent manner. A hypothetical portfolio is constructed based on the recommendations that are provided in its weekly report. On the last day of each month the stocks in the portfolio are marked to market and hypothetical returns are calculated, as summarised in the table and chart below.
All recommendations (open and closed) are included in the return calculations. No adjustments are made for the index weighting or risk of individual stocks and transaction costs are not taken into account. The integrity of the data used in constructing and calculating the portfolio returns is independently verified by an accounting firm on a quarterly basis. Past performance is not a reliable guide to future performance, and investors should be aware that returns can be negative.
| Performance Period | Stock Resource | S&P/ASX 300 Resources Accumulation Index |
All Ordinaries Accumulation Index |
|---|---|---|---|
| Annualised Return Since Inception (1 June 2003 to 31 January 2010) |
36.1% | 23.4% | 12.2% |
| 2010 Financial Year to Date (1 July 2009 to 31 January 2010) |
22.7% | 10.7% | 26.1% |
| 2009 Financial Year Return (1 July 2008 to 30 June 2009) |
-36.0% | -30.4% | -22.1% |
| 2008 Financial Year Return (1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008) |
-8.9% | 27.7% | -12.1% |
| 2007 Financial Year Return (1 July 2006 to 30 June 2007) |
90.7% | 28.3% | 30.3% |
| 2006 Financial Year Return (1 July 2005 to 30 June 2006) |
122.3% | 53.7% | 24.2% |
| 2005 Financial Year Return (1 July 2004 to 30 June 2005) |
42.0% | 44.9% | 24.7% |
| 2004 Financial Year Return (1 July 2003 to 30 June 2004) |
87.5% | 43.4% | 22.4% |
Portfolio Methodology
The following criteria have been applied when calculating the period performance rate for the Stock Resource Hypothetical Portfolio Performance:
1) Stocks are included in the Stock Resource Portfolio, as long as they traded at or below the recommended entry price in the two weeks after our Buy recommendation.
2) All investment purchases and short sales are deemed to be of equal amounts, (e.g. $1000 for a purchase – the ‘theoretical value’). The theoretical value should be applied to determine the notional number of shares acquired (to 2 decimal places);
3) Include all open and closed recommendations. The notional number of shares held at period end should be marked to market on a consistent basis. The notional number of shares recommended to be sold (or bought back in the case of prior short sale recommendations) during the period should be valued at the market price prevailing at the date of the recommendation on a consistent basis. Market valuations should be obtained from independent sources;
4) Where a stock has been recommended on multiple occasions it will not be included as having been recommended on multiple occasions for any performance calculation unless the recommendation specifically states it is to all members, including those that have previously purchased the stock;
5) Where part sales are recommended the remaining notional number of shares will continue to be carried at the market value and their performance included in the portfolio;
6) Investment recommendations should take into account time-weightings of the theoretical value invested, or provided from, the sale of an investment; and
7) Where a company which is an open recommendation pays a dividend, the dividend rate should be applied to the notional number of shares held and treated as a cash payment.
Definitions
Open recommendations – these relate to those stocks that have been recommended as ‘buys’ or as ‘short sells’ but have not subsequently had equivalent sell or buyback recommendations.
Closed recommendations – these relate to those stocks that have been recommended as ‘buys’ or as ‘short sells’ and have subsequently had equivalent sell or buyback recommendations.
Past Recommendations
The following table lists all Buy recommendations made by Stock Resource where the position has been closed out by a corresponding Sell recommendation. Nominal returns are adjusted for dividends and capital repayments, but exclude transaction costs.
| COMPANY | Investment Return |
Buy Price | Issue Date | Sell Price | Issue Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABB Grain | 20.2% | $6.99 $6.05 |
12-Jul-06 25-Oct-06 |
$7.630 | 3-Oct-07 |
| Adelaide Resources | 184.4% | $0.23 | 3-Mar-04 | $0.655 | 12-Oct-05 |
| Admiralty Resources | 411.9% | $0.084 | 25-Oct-06 | $0.43 (half) | 1-Aug-07 |
| Adamus | -49.6% | $0.71 $0.70 |
24-Oct-07 21-Nov-07 |
$0.355 | 20-May-09 |
| AED Oil | -10.7% | $1.120 | 12-Nov-08 | $1.00 | 14-Jan-09 |
| Alinta~ | 12.9% | $5.65 | 2-Jul-03 | $6.26 | 12-Nov-03 |
| Alinta Reset Prefs | 10.7% | $100.00 | 2-Jul-03 | $110.70 | 12-Nov-03 |
| Alkane# | -44.3% | $0.485 | 11-Jun-03 5-Nov-03 |
$0.27 | 9-Jun-04 |
| Allco Equity Partners~ | 14.0% | $3.99 | 10-Jan-07 | $4.52 | 4-Jul-07 |
| Alumina | 14.6% | $5.07 | 12-May-04 | $5.61 | 15-Jun-05 |
| Alumina | -42.5% | $5.10 $6.35 $3.00 $1.00 |
12-Dec-07 23-Oct-08 6-May-09 27-Aug-08 |
$1.91 | 1-Oct-09 |
| Antares Energy | -93.1% | $0.90 | 30-May-07 | $0.062 | 2-Apr-08 |
| Anvil Mining# | 39.7% | $0.37 | 24-Sep-03 4-Feb-04 |
$0.51 | 31-Mar-04 |
| ARC Energy# | 29.8% 53.6% |
$0.76 | 18-Jun-03 5-May-04 |
$0.98 (half) $1.16 (half) |
21-Jul-04 20-Oct-04 |
| Austral Coal Convertible Notes |
55.7% | $0.55 | 27-Aug-03 | $0.83 | 7-Jul-04 |
| Australian Worldwide Exploration |
53.8% 125.0% 169.2% |
$1.04 | 10-Sep-03 26-Nov-03 22-Dec-04 1-Feb-06 |
$1.60 (half) $2.29 (half) $3.00 |
7-Jul-04 31-Aug-05 15-Aug-07 |
| Australian Zircon | -9.5% | $0.21 | 11-Jan-06 | $0.190 | 7-May-08 |
| Aztec | 78.6% | $0.042 | 23-Jul-03 | $0.075 | 27-Aug-03 |
| Ballarat Goldfields## (Ord & Options) |
187.5% | $0.104 | 14-Jul-04 | $0.25 $0.049 |
24-Nov-04 6-Apr-05 |
| BeMax | 85.3% | $0.17 | 27-Oct-04 | $0.315 | 9-Nov-05 |
| BlueScope Steel | 35.3% | $6.71 | 30-Aug-06 | $8.840 | 7-Feb-07 |
| BMA Gold# | -49.5% | $0.30 $0.20 $0.28 |
4-Feb-04 15-Jun-05 1-Mar-06 |
$0.14 | 17-Jan-07 |
| Bolnisi Gold | 43.0% | $0.25 | 27-Aug-03 | $0.35 | 24-Sep-03 |
| Bolnisi Gold | 239.4% 372.2% |
$0.464 $0.560 |
15-Dec-04 16-Feb-05 |
$1.59 (half) $2.27 |
14-Dec-05 8-Feb-06 |
| Breakaway Resources |
134.3% | $0.035 | 18-Jun-03 | $0.082 | 22-Oct-03 |
| Buru Energy | nmf | $0.00 | 11-Jun-08 | $0.235 | 22-Apr-09 |
| Cazaly Resources | -71.6% | $1.60 | 30-Nov-05 | $0.455 | 26-Apr-06 |
| CBH Resources# | 247.2% 73.0% 191.6% -55.2% |
$0.069 $0.075 $0.165 $0.260 $0.457 |
3-Jun-03 27-Aug-03 12-May-04 22-Feb-06 28-Mar-07 |
$0.255 (half) $0.205 (half) $0.515 (half) $0.115 |
3-Mar-04 13-Oct-04 5-Sep-07 24-Jun-09 |
| Centennial Coal | -5.6% | $4.25 $3.59 |
26-Oct-05 16-Nov-05 |
$3.70 | 22-Feb-06 |
| Centennial Coal | 12.2% | $2.45 | 19-Nov-08 | $2.75 | 3-Jun-09 |
| Centralian @ (ex Giants Reef Mining) |
-97.3% | $0.071 $0.035 |
22-Sep-04 13-Apr-05 |
$0.043 | 13-Dec-06 |
| Copper Strike | -25.5% | $0.235 | 22-Jun-05 | $0.175 | 26-Oct-05 |
| Cue Energy | 230.4% | $0.115 | 20-Oct-04 | $0.38 (half) | 24-Nov-04 |
| Echelon Resources | 20.0% | $0.20 | 23-Mar-05 | $0.24 | 4-May-05 |
| Energy Metals ##### | 498.0% 960.0% 1124.0% |
$0.25 | 20-Jul-05 | $1.495 (half) $2.65 (half) $1.02 (70%) |
21-Sep-05 29-Mar-06 25/11/2009 |
| Energy Metals Options | 22,900.0% | $0.01 | 7-Sep-05 | $2.30 (half) | 29-Mar-06 |
| Equinox~ | 168.8% | $1.70 | 28-Mar-07 | $4.36 | 2-Apr-08 |
| Exco Resources# | 40.0% | $0.25 $0.25 $0.15 |
22-Oct-03 12-Nov-03 7-Sep-05 |
$0.33 (half) | 5-Jul-06 |
| FerrAus Limited | 61.9% | $0.420 | 8-Nov-06 | $0.68 | 15-Aug-07 |
| Gippsland Offshore Petroleum | -89.5% | $0.20 | 7-Mar-07 | $0.021 | 6-May-09 |
| Great Southern Plantations | -20.6% | $4.03 | 12-Apr-06 | $3.20 | 21-Jun-06 |
| Gunson Resources# | 90.6% 50.0% |
$0.160 $0.230 |
30-Jul-03 26-May-04 |
$0.305 $0.345 |
14-Jan-04 3-Nov-04 |
| Hardman Resources | 7.3% | $1.985 $1.855 |
22-Mar-06 17-May-06 |
$2.06 | 22-Nov-06 |
| Iluka Rights | na | $0.00 | 19-Mar-08 | $1.45 | 16-Apr-08 |
| Image Resources | 100.0% | $0.18 | 20-Aug-03 | $0.36 | 15-Oct-03 |
| IMX Resources | -49.2% | $0.68 0.56 |
12-Dec-07 2-Jul-08 |
$0.315 | 21-Oct-09 |
| Incitec Pivot~ | 42.0% | $17.18 | 18-Jan-06 | $24.10 | 18-Oct-06 |
| Incremental Petroleum | 2.9% | $1.38 | 21-Mar-07 | $1.42 | 12-Sep-07 |
| Innamincka Petroleum |
-12.0% | $0.75 | 17-Nov-04 | $0.66 | 20-Jul-05 |
| Intec@@ | -70.7% | $0.30 0.185 |
6-Dec-06 28-Mar-07 |
$0.059 | 4-Jun-08 |
| Jackson Gold | 12.5% | $0.20 | 11-Jun-03 | $0.225 | 20-Aug-03 |
| Jindalee Resources | 408.7% | $0.115 | 19-Jul-03 | $0.585 (half) | 31-Aug-05 |
| Kimberley Diamond Company |
-26.3% | $1.52 | 11-Aug-04 | $1.12 | 15-Sep-04 |
| Leighton Holdings | -4.6% | $24.60 | 23-Dec-08 | $23.46 | 10-Jun-09 |
| Leviathan Resources# | -14.7% | $0.950 | 23-Mar-05 13-Jul-05 |
$0.81 | 28-Sep-05 |
| Leyshon Resources | 2.2% | $0.450 | 18-Feb-04 | $0.46 | 17-May-06 |
| Matrix Metals | -26.2% | $0.110 0.068 |
8-Dec-04 11-May-05 |
$0.062 | 2-Aug-06 |
| Maxitrans | -60.8% | $0.74 | 9-Jan-08 | $0.290 | 25-Feb-09 |
| Metgasco | 220.8% 213.2% |
$0.21 0.32 |
20-Sep-06 13-Dec-06 |
$0.85 (half) $0.830 |
21-Feb-07 29-Aug-07 |
| Michelago | -56.7% | $0.12 | 17-Mar-04 | $0.052 | 7-Sep-05 |
| Minara Resources~ | 94.7% 269.2% |
$1.975 | 9-Mar-05 24-Aug-05 |
$3.67 (half) $6.80 |
6-Sep-06 28-Feb-07 |
| Mincor Resources#~ | 67.5% 132.4% |
$0.36 $0.84 $0.61 |
11-Jun-03 28-Oct-03 19-Jan-05 |
$0.835 (half) $1.175 |
29-Mar-06 12-Jul-06 |
| Mithril Resources | -66.7% | $0.44 $0.40 |
25-Feb-04 17-Mar-04 |
$0.14 | 24-Sep-08 |
| NiQuest | 21.2% | $0.33 | 12-Oct-05 | $0.420 | 30-Nov-05 |
| Norwest Energy | 29.1% | $0.055 | 14-Jan-04 | $0.071 | 22-Sep-04 |
| Nova Energy | -18.2% | $1.650 | 29-Mar-06 | $1.350 | 4-Oct-06 |
| NuStar Mining | 47.6% | $0.042 | 21-Apr-04 | $0.062 | 21-Sep-05 |
| Oilsearch~ | 53.3% | $3.680 | 14-Feb-07 | $5.500 | 7-May-08 |
| OneSteel | 34.8% 27.3% |
$1.84 $2.49 |
19-Nov-03 21-Jan-04 |
$2.43 $3.11 |
23-Jun-04 17-Aug-05 |
| OneSteel | 13.6% | $3.69 | 14-Jun-06 | $4.19 | 23-Aug-06 |
| Oroya | -34.3% | $0.175 | 26-Nov-03 | $0.115 | 10-Mar-04 |
| Oxiana | 18.9% 25.2% |
$0.81 $0.80 $0.77 |
10-Sep-03 28-Jan-04 11-Aug-04 |
$0.94 (half) $0.99 |
27-Oct-04 17-Nov-04 |
| Oxiana (ex Minotaur)### | 909.8% | $0.20 | 3-Sep-03 | $1.965 (half) | 16-Nov-05 |
| Pacifica | 10.8% | $1.95 | 8-Mar-06 | $2.16 | 22-Nov-06 |
| Pan Australian# | 128.6% 140.0% 385.7% |
$0.095 $0.150 $0.215 $0.300 |
5-Nov-03 8-Sep-04 17-Aug-05 31-May-06 |
$0.28 (half) $0.405 (half) $1.055 (half) |
9-Feb-05 5-Apr-06 12-Dec-07 |
| Perilya# | 61.8% 133.8% 226.5% |
$0.680 | 2-Jul-03 5-May-04 |
$1.10 (half) $1.59 (half) $2.21 |
16-Feb-05 18-Jan-06 22-Mar-06 |
| Qantas~ | 34.4% 70.0% |
$3.23 | 26-Apr-06 28-Jun-06 |
$4.23 (half) $5.23 |
27-Sep-06 14-Feb-07 |
| Queensland Cotton~ | 66.3% | $4.05 $3.25 |
15-Feb-06 7-Feb-07 |
$5.90 | 27-Jun-07 |
| Queensland Gas Rights | N/A | $0.00 | 16-Aug-06 | $0.21 | 16-Aug-06 |
| Queensland Gas Co | 380.4% 955.6% 1,717.3% |
$0.445 $0.25 $0.36 |
2-Feb-05 2-Feb-05 18-May-05 |
$1.52 (half) $3.34 (half) $5.75 |
28-Mar-07 12-Dec-07 5-Nov-08 |
| Rinker~ | 55.5% | $12.80 | 16-Aug-06 | $19.50 | 9-May-07 |
| ROC Oil | 56.0% | $1.68 | 8-Sep-04 | $2.62 | 17-Aug-05 |
| Sally Malay Mining | 33.3% 41.1% |
$0.645 | 28-Oct-03 3-Dec-03 |
$0.86 (half) $0.91 |
29-Sep-04 9-Feb-05 |
| Santos | 16.9% 55.9% |
$6.10 $6.56 |
25-Feb-04 25-Aug-04 |
$6.98 $9.90 |
2-Jun-04 13-Apr-05 |
| Sedimentary Holdings | 13.0% | $0.23 | 15-Mar-06 | $0.26 | 6-Sep-06 |
| SMC Gold | 46.7% | $0.10 $0.09 |
23-Nov-05 7-Dec-05 |
$0.135 | 4-Oct-06 |
| Straits Resources#~ | 69.6% 302.2% |
$1.170 $0.870 |
31-Mar-04 19-May-04 |
$1.70 (half) $3.83 |
10-Nov-04 24-Apr-07 |
| Strike Resources | 71.6% | $1.55 | 13-Dec-06 | $2.66 | 14-May-08 |
| Tethyan Copper# | 273.2% | $0.30 $0.40 |
28-Oct-03 10-Dec-03 |
$1.40 | 29-Mar-06 |
| Terramin Australia# | 36.7% 254.8% |
$0.238 $0.23 $0.34 $1.65 |
11-Feb-04 6-Apr-05 9-Nov-05 18-Apr-07 |
$0.375 $2.63 |
8-Jun-05 12-Sep-07 |
| Thundelarra Exploration#### | 5.1% | $0.54 | 28-Oct-03 | $0.54 | 29-Sep-04 |
| Toro Energy | 424.0% | $0.25 | 8-Feb-06 | $1.31 | 29-Mar-06 |
| Triako~ | 12.7% | $1.70 | 15-Oct-03 | $1.628 | 16-Aug-06 |
| Voyager Energy# ## (Ord & Options) |
58.7% 15.8% |
$0.213 | 17-Sep-03 14-Jan-04 24-Mar-04 12-Jan-05 |
$0.295 (half) $0.275 |
11-Aug-04 16-Feb-05 |
| Vulcan Resources | 20.5% | $0.280 $0.45 |
3-May-06 18-Jul-07 |
$0.44 | 14-Nov-07 |
| WMC Resources~ | 128.3% | $3.60 | 18-Jun-03 | $7.85 | 1-Jun-05 |
| Woodside Petroleum~ | 71.5% | $37.60 | 1-Nov-06 | 56.5 (half) | 3-Sep-08 |
| Wridgways | -9.7% | $2.880 | 29-Aug-07 | $2.330 | 24-Sep-08 |
| Zinifex# | 43.3% 76.4% |
$1.780 | 3-Mar-04 7-Apr-04 |
$2.55 (half) $3.14 |
12-Jan-05 15-Jun-05 |
- ~ Denotes hypothetical return includes dividends and/or capital returns.
- # Denotes Recommended as a Buy and/or Sell on multiple occasions. Buy price and returns are based on averages.
- ## Denotes Return includes revenue from the sale of attaching options.
- ### Denotes effective entry price achieved via accepting Oxiana’s takeover offer for Minotaur Resources, and deducting 40 cps value for retained interest in Minotaur Exploration.
- #### Denotes Return includes the sale of shares in Royal Resources on 12 April 2006 which were acquired as an in specie distribution to Thundelarra shareholders.
- ##### Denotes Returns after early 2008 adjusted for a 3 for 1 share split
- @ Denotes Return including share reconstruction of 1:34 when Giants Reef Mining changed name to Centralian Minerals in October 2005.
- @@ Denotes Return includes sale of attaching renounceable rights
Samples
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